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Working Paper
25 pages, 3M
December 2024

How income expectations adjust to inflationA consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through

We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers’ responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher estimates of the pass-through than those obtained from micro data. Our methodology allows one to examine how the pass-through varies along the probability distribution of expected inflation, which turns out to be particularly large for moderate inflation

Source: op.europa.eu