ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. March 2026

The euro area economy remained resilient in 2025, despite uncertainty and trade policy shocks. Growth expectations were consistently revised up over the course of last year and the economy broadly maintained this positive momentum into the start of 2026. However, the war in the Middle East has brought renewed uncertainty and the economic outlook is clouded again. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, together with attacks on energy infrastructure, have led to sign

Source: op.europa.eu